Russia’s provocations against NATO countries are becomingincreasingly difficult to dismiss as isolated incidents. How far is Moscow prepared to go — and how should Poland and its allies respond?
In this Deep Dive, Adam Reichardt speaks with Jakub Bornio,security analyst and scholar at the University of Wrocław, the Institute of Central Europe and the Jamestown Foundation, about the deteriorating security environment on NATO’s eastern flank.
They discuss Russia’s strategy towards Poland and the Balticstates, the danger of escalation and miscalculation, why Bornio is sceptical of the term “hybrid war”, and whether Moscow is deliberately testing the credibility of NATO’s Article 5 guarantees.
The conversation also examines plans for a permanent US military presence in Poland, what American troops can realistically contribute to deterrence, and why the coming winter could become another major test for both Ukraine and NATO’s eastern flank.
TIMESTAMPS
00:00 Introduction
01:45 How serious is the security situation on NATO’s eastern flank?
04:00 Russia’s growing provocations against NATO
06:45 What is Russia’s strategy towards NATO?
09:10 Moscow’s goal: weakening US influence in the region
11:30 Could a provocation escalate into direct confrontation?
13:35 How should NATO respond to Russian provocations?
15:19 Why “hybrid war” may be the wrong term
18:45 A permanent US military presence in Poland
23:47 What should we watch for this winter?
Talk Eastern Europe is the podcast from New Eastern Europe magazine - your trusted source for in-depth analysis and expert perspectives on Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and the post-Soviet space.
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